Robert Barnes [bot] @Barnes_Law@mstdn.foxfam.club
This is my point. As even @MarcACaputo notes, Democratic vote file vendors show Biden winning the early vote by 22 points. That ain't 64 points, as forecast by polls. If the polls are off by that big a margin, they cannot be trusted for predicting the election in general.
Nate Cohn: We've conducted four polls of Wisconsin over the last year, and we can go back and join them up to some of the absentee voting data there. It's a little out of date, but the folks who have already voted, per our ..
The impressive aspect of @NateSilver538 ineptitude is his inability to even read polls well. The best measurement of the polls is this -- are Democrats, especially minority millennials, voting at the rate forecast by the polls for the early vote stage? Answer: nowhere close.
Nate Silver: What we can say from the early voting data is that Democratic turnout is likely to be very high. Will Republican turnout be very high also? Yes, I *think* so, very likely. But it's easier to be certain that ..
Re @FrankLuntz This is completely fake news. An actual vote file vendor shows much, much higher youth vote in those states in early vote in 2016. https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/ https://twitter.com/Barnes_Law/status/1320127910519263232
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FYI: apparently @MSNBC circulated a fake chart showing youth vote up five-fold over 2016 early vote. First, their numbers are completely false about the youth vote amongst early voting in 2016. Second, the youth share of the vote is DOWN, not up, compared to polling predictions.
David Faris: Curious to know from @Nate_Cohn et al if what looks like sky high 18-29 turnout, including not just early vote but also stated intention, is reflected in polling or if assumptions still being made that t..
Re @SirJohnVeritas @matthewjsinger @Nate_Cohn Where are you getting such ridiculous information? First, youth vote is way down from polling forecasts. Second, 242K+ youths voted in Florida in 2016, not "44,000." https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/ https://twitter.com/Barnes_Law/status/1320127172732882945 #Florida
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.@JoeBiden Receives More Than Twice As Much Money From Billionaires As @realdonaldtrump In Final Push via @Forbes https://www.forbes.com/sites/michelatindera/2020/10/24/biden-receives-more-than-twice-as-much-money-from-billionaires-as-trump-in-final-push/ https://twitter.com/KellyannePolls/status/1320122498680238080 #Biden #Trump
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A rising GOP tide is flooding the in-person early voting polls in Florida, washing out big chunks of the Democrats' lead in pre-Election Day ballots
That's the story behind the Obama-Trump splitscreen on FL's campaign trail today
w/@sabrod123
https://politi.co/31VOE7d https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1320113828550631426 #Democrats #Election #Florida #GOP #Obama #Trump
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Re @SHEPMJS @falcon921715 IBD changed their polling method to much more online, w/ a focus on getting more young people, that made their polling both more variable and less reliable. https://twitter.com/Barnes_Law/status/1320121577225080832
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Re @HelenaMTLawyer What's very dumb is nominating a guy both Iowa & New Hampshire told you is awful. Historically, vote share in early primaries has been highly predictive. It's a key component to Professor Norpoth's model, which has been more accurate than public opinion polling historically. https://twitter.com/Barnes_Law/status/1320117677977862146 #Iowa #NewHampshire
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I hate EV tea leaves, as you all know. Moreover, I hate the media fav pundits inability to do so.
That being said, our polling in Florida has been remarkably consistent on who was going to turn out when, and that is playing out as expected.
Thus, steady evaporation of D lead. https://twitter.com/Peoples_Pundit/status/1320116917521272835 #Florida
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Re @MandHF @ryan_tyson Sure. Trafalgar has Trump carrying Florida by a bigger margin than he won it in 2016
But other polls had Clinton winning Florida by about the same margin.
And she lost it.
So I’m not sure “citing Trafalgar” is such a sin https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1320116117789134850 #Clinton #Florida #Trump
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Trump is leading in every key swing state. No, I am not joking. Patrick Basham of the Democracy Institute explains what is going on: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jf-p0vXvyAA https://twitter.com/CottoGottfried/status/1320115349501693952 #Togo #Trump
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Supply and demand!
https://twitter.com/justin_hart/status/1320115108119339009
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"You got to be very careful in Philadelphia. They play games in Philadelphia, and they won’t let us watch the count in Philadelphia,” Trump said at a campaign rally in Pensacola, Florida." https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/10/23/donald-trump-play-games-philadelphia-watch-voting/ https://twitter.com/nedryun/status/1320114844973105154 #Florida #Pensacola #Philadelphia #Politics #Trump #trumprally
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Re @ReturnToNormie Was very close in 2016, so likely very close again. https://twitter.com/Barnes_Law/status/1320114096268742656
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Re @tylerstimson Mostly unprecedented. Closest examples would be Stevenson & McGovern (who was so-so in both). https://twitter.com/Barnes_Law/status/1320113987929817089 #Tyler
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Re Bonus: fresh #s from @ryan_tyson, 1of FL's best pollsters & its top GOP data wiz
Most public polls have Biden marginally leading
He has Trump marginally ahead
He was the only 2018 pollster telling me Scott & DeSantis would likely win contra other polls
https://politi.co/31VOE7d
https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1320113833835401216 #Biden #GOP #Trump
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Re @PoliticalBetsWC The 25% chance of Trump losing derives in part from this variable of big money, big media, big monopolist opposition due to Big Tech interference. I think it's an unlikely factor to tip the equation due to the amount of attention people pay to the Presidential race. https://twitter.com/Barnes_Law/status/1320113566406504448 #Trump
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Reminder: no candidate has won the Presidency in the era of Iowa/New Hampshire going first without finishing in the top-2 in at least one of those states in the primary stage of the race. Those voters rejecting someone has usually been a forecast at what American voters will do. https://twitter.com/Barnes_Law/status/1320111003728687105 #Iowa #NewHampshire
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