Good news from Lebanon. This is the cabinet meeting in early March (when Boris & Trump had their full mugs exposed). They acted quickly. They have <20 death (~4.5 mil) 100 times less than than NY.

Acting quickly pays. And wear your fucking mask! twitter.com/nntaleb/status/124

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Now, either @raoult_didier's treatment (chloroquine) is incontrovertibly effective or,
+ More people are dead than claimed (in Marseilles the dead have been actively voting since the Fr. revolution)
+ He treats pple who don't need treatment
+ Something in the water/confounder twitter.com/nntaleb/status/124

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Once we are done with the epidemiological models, we will show why polygenic scores produce spurious results like these & why this claim is PURE noise.
Hint: curse of dimensionality, paper to come. PS--genetics is a mess. twitter.com/paulg/status/12467 … twitter.com/nntaleb/status/124

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🔁 Nassim Nicholas Taleb Retweeted:
Dr Sam Pappas @DrSamPappas

Excellent map @ByzantinFR of genetic lineages and overlap of civilizations @_Tom_Pappas @amyriolo @MikeEmanuelFox of Eastern Mediterranean regions as inspired by a tweet from @nntaleb summer 2019 twitter.com/ByzantinFR/status/ … twitter.com/nntaleb/status/124

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Mike Lawler (@mikeandallie) should make his kids derive the significance of the Raoult chloroquine results, a trivial illustration --something that seems to escape medical commentators. twitter.com/nntaleb/status/124

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I am amazed that an error that eludes "evidence based" "scientists", nonprobabilist statisticians, Pinker-style naive empiricists... is explained very simply by Mike to his kids. twitter.com/mikeandallie/statu … twitter.com/nntaleb/status/124

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Department of hindsight: the NYT is now blaming mobility. Yet they were publishing crap saying it was not rational to panic when Yaneer, Joe, and I were advocating what looked like an "overreaction". nyti.ms/3bUTtQn  twitter.com/nntaleb/status/124

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No soft allowed; hint: you can prove the limit though using special functions.

(Please note that I have been blocking those posting snide remarks; this is ONLY for those into these things.) twitter.com/nntaleb/status/124

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🔁 Nassim Nicholas Taleb Retweeted:
Nicholas A. Christakis @NAChristakis

People who are dying of COVID19 will need first-rate palliative (hospice) care. This is going to be especially the case for people who are denied ventilators or who are taken off of them (i.e., who are “extubated”). Let’s talk about this painful and poignant fact. 1/ twitter.com/nntaleb/status/124

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🔁 Nassim Nicholas Taleb Retweeted:
Yaneer Bar-Yam @yaneerbaryam

BMJ published a paper with a basic simple error and incorrect conclusions. I submitted a note but didn't retract yet. Link to the paper and comment attached. @nntaleb
bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375 … twitter.com/nntaleb/status/124

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🔁 Nassim Nicholas Taleb Retweeted:
Nicky Williamson 🌏✈️🌏✈️🌏 @NickyWill100

@nntaleb's Grandmother knew that you dummies. twitter.com/WorldAndScience/st … twitter.com/nntaleb/status/124

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This 2 page paper should put the nail in the coffin of "evidence based" science and risk management.
Any comments? Posting on ArXiv & looking for a journal as it is a new result in Extreme Value Theory. twitter.com/nntaleb/status/124

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